David Kimaiyo, Joseph ole Lenku on the spot as militants kill yet again

Saturday morning’s deadly attack in Mandera by Somalia’s Al Shabaab ranks as the third worst attack by the militant group in one year.

Last year, the group staged one of its most audacious attacks ever when a small group stormed the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, killing 67 people in a day-long siege.

In one and a half months beginning June this year, the al-Qaeda linked group staged a series of attacks in Lamu County which claimed 94 lives.

The manner in which the 28 innocent victims of the Mandera attack were killed is chillingly similar to the Lamu attacks.

In the latest attack as it were in the Lamu raid, victims were identified by their religion. Those who could not recite part of the Koran were shot dead.

Security experts contend that Al Shabaab is generally on the wane after suffering heavy losses in their strongholds inside Somalia at the hands of African Union forces.

Apart from the June attacks in Lamu, the group had not staged another high profile attack. Nairobi which had become one of its favourite targets experienced some measure of calm.

However, analysts say it is perhaps too early for our security forces to underplay the group’s ability to strike within the country.

“Al Shabab is down but not dead,” said security analyst Richard Tuta. “The greatest mistake that we can make is to conclude the group has been confined to a certain region of the country and therefore is of no significance. These attacks remind us of its potential to hurt us and our interests even as its fortunes dwindle,” he said.

For some time before the attack, Mandera Governor Ali Roba had been in the news warning about the increased presence of the group in his county. He had requested that security in the region to be enhanced.

He had blamed an assassination attempt on his life two months ago on the group which seems to have gained a toehold in the town in recent times.

Due to its proximity to Somalia, Mandera was always going to be a target of Al Shabaab which has vowed to avenge the invasion of Somalia by Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) in 2011.

It was here, long before the KDF operation began, that the group first started imposing their Sharia inspired laws such as banning cinema halls and playing football.

But what might have blunted the governor’s warnings is the fact that Mandera County has been gripped by inter-clan conflicts since last year’s General Election.

These inter-clan clashes have run parallel with Al Shabaab activities which have resulted in the sporadic yet growing targeting of police officers and public utilities, including power installations.

Those in the know say that Kenya’s security forces have fought a war of attrition that has greatly degraded the group’s presence in Nairobi.

“After the Lamu attacks, a good number of their mid and low level operatives were killed in unreported operations in Nairobi. The big fishes fled to other places,” said an officer with the Anti-Terrorism Police Unit, who is part of a team hunting down the militants.

The Mandera killings come just three weeks after armed bandits killed 25 officers in Kapedo on the border between Baringo and Turkana counties, signifying a serious deterioration of security in parts of the country. 

The three worst attacks, including the Kapedo killings, have happened under the watch of Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph ole Lenku and Inspector General of Police David Kimaiyo.

After every attack, the two have always promised the country, as they have done after the Mandera killings, to get to the bottom of matter and bring the culprits to book.

This prompted the military to be deployed in the area, a move that was praised and criticised in equal measure by Kenyans. “The President is increasingly relying on the military to fight these wars within our borders because he has little option,” said a top police officer at Vigilance House, who requested not to be named.

“Who does not know that we are poorly equipped? Who does not know that our intelligence system stopped functioning long time ago? And if the police cannot rise to these challenges, then the President has an obligation to protect the citizens of this country by any means, including deploying the military,” he said.

No solution

However, this has not prevented the attacks from happening. “It seems the more they speak tough, the attackers go out to prove them wrong,” said Mr Tuta.

In claiming responsibility for the Mandera attacks, Al Shabaab claimed it was avenging the treatment of Muslim by Kenya’s security forces at the Coast.

For a week now, the police in Mombasa have been conducting an operation against members of the movement that has led to the closing down of the four mosques accused of radicalising the Muslim youth.

Mr Hassan Mohammed Abdulla, a former police officer who now runs a private security firm, said security officers must change tack in how to handle Al Shabaab.

“The aim of Al Shabaab is to create an arc of instability from the Coast and all the way to North Eastern and beyond. Their stock in trade is violence and when the government responds violently, it is playing in to the hands of these radicals. We should prioritise the role of intelligence in order to penetrate this group, prevent the attacks and bring the culprits to justice,” he said.