by Joe Kiarie and Kenfrey Kiberenge

Kenya could easily be walking the tragic path that led to the loss of millions of lives due to civil strife in Liberia, Somalia and Sierra Leone.

Conflict experts say the amassment of weapons in northern Kenya should be treated seriously.

International Centre for Policy and Conflict Executive Director Wainaina Ndung’u says armed groups in that region have already transformed into well-established militia groups that could pose grave danger to the country.

Mr Wainaina says if the scenarios in the northern Kenya replicates elswhere in the country, the situation could get worse.

"We are talking of neglected communities that have lost confidence in the ability of the State to offer them security and a decent livelihood.

Using their arms, they are now assured of security and what they are doing is trying to control their economy using the same arms," he notes.

But he says the scenario will get more complex when the communities decide to control politics, with their arms stocks making them unassailable.

"In Sierra Leone and Liberia, it was also a situation where the state could not offer prerequisite services, law and order as well as governance. The people felt neglected. And to ensure their own survival, they had to get what they needed," Wainaina explains.

He says it was due to this factor that previously non-violent groups armed themselves and tried to expand their territorial control and even built their own economies.

"They later converged and made the situation uncontrollable since they were to some extent even stronger than government forces. This led to the bloody wars that were led by warlords such as Foday Sankoh — the leader of Sierra Leone’s RUF rebel group, who became infamous because of the brutality of his fighters," he says.

He notes the communities in northern Kenya already seem to have the power to overcome security forces, saying the Government has lost control over its territory.

"Even in the recent attacks in Isiolo, it is evident we are dealing with groups that can easily overcome the State security setup and anyone else who comes in their way," he asserts.

He says it should not be lost that even Somalia’s is due to many years of lawlessness.

And as was the case in Liberia, he says people with political interest could also take over armed groups in the country and use them at a national level.

"These groups can be manipulated internally or externally and that is why the Government has to be serious. If no action is taken, the communities in northern Kenya could form clusters of deadly and politically exploitable militia groups," he warns.

Mr Phillip Ochieng of PeaceNet-Kenya concurs arms in the region could pose national danger once they overflow to areas that currently have none.

"The pastoral communities have never organised themselves against the central government. But if the arms spread to other politically volatile areas, this can result in civil strife," he notes.

Wainaina says the Government should tackle the marginalisation of northern Kenya head on, as the threat its residents pose is worse than the resource distribution issues it has so far failed to deal with.

He says the region should be given an equal share of national resources and treated as part of the Kenya, especially after the 2007 post-election violence.

"The moment you give violence a political face, you start courting trouble," he says.

He terms the various Government initiatives to mop up weapons as merely theoretical, saying Kenya has never had a systematic disarmament method.