By David Ohito

Climate change has hit Kenya with a vengeance. The food situation remains worrying for marginal agricultural, agro-pastoralist, pastoralist and urban livelihoods.

The Government is in panic mode and is fire fighting on one hand while seeking at least Sh37 billion to feed hungry mouths.

The state of the nation according to Prime Minister Raila Odinga is bad.

"We have a worrying situation and forecasts in these areas are grim. The Gods are not to blame. We are paying the price for decades of wanton destruction of the environment, which has seen our forest cover decline from 12 per cent at independence to about 1.2 per cent."

"Our national assessment is that 10 million people are food insecure and require emergency support. These people will not be able to meet their minimum food requirements if emergency measures are not taken," President Kibaki said earlier in the year.

failed rains

Seasons of failed rains since 2007 culminated in near crop failure. The number of Kenyans threatened by food insecurity is on the rise but leaders are busy politicking.

Raila argues, "We have abused our water towers, slashed and burnt our forests and farmed in river basins. From Mt Kenya, to the Aberdares, Mau, Cherangani to Mt Elgon, all water towers are threatened by human encroachment."

Pastoralists water cattle at Diff, in Wajir North District. Photos: Peter Orengo /Standard

More than 28 Kenyans have died in conflicts related to resources like food and water.

Elsewhere people resort to coping strategies such as eating wild foods to survive while the rich have too much on their plates and fridges.

Cattle carcasses are strewn across marginal districts and those of wild animals litter sanctuaries. The truth is that the country did not harvest enough food.

"In a good year, we harvest 28 million bags of maize. This year, we hope to get 20 million. Our national consumption is 33 million bags.

We have near total crop failure in Lower Eastern where the expected food production has been downgraded by 40 per cent. Instead of 1.3 million bags, we expect 800,000 bags," Raila says.

Agriculture Minister William Ruto says the Government is moving fast towards irrigation farming as a long-term solution.

"We aim to irrigate one million acres in the next five years. In the next two months, we will put about 35,000 acres of land under irrigated maize and rice." Ruto said.

In the long-term measures, Ruto says agricultural extension; research programmes are on the way and the investment plan is about Sh16.7 billion in the next 3-5 years.

But analysts decry the poor planning by Government. Former Finance Minister Chris Okemo says Kenya’s problem is an accumulation of failed policies over time.

"The problems are not new. Energy shortage occurs annually and we refuse to have affirmative action."

"Kenya is not the only country affected by drought. Many others are, but their wise plans help them. The solution lies on improved budgetary allocation for agriculture and investing in infrastructure." Okemo said.

Economist Mr Osano Kute says, "Even the military and National Youth Service interventions will not yield much. The army would have made a difference if they drilled boreholes and supplied ready to eat food."

Kute says strategies have not been implemented over time making the situation worse.

"Government interventions are reactionary. To ensure food security, after Mau, we must repossess Agricultural Development Corporation and Kenya Agricultural Research Institute farms."

The situation has not spared Kenya’s wild heritage. At least 28 elephants have died of malnutrition. and scores of antelopes have no food.

USaid and World Food Programme (WFP) estimate that about 15 per cent of IDPs remaining in camps are likely to remain food insecure through next month, having lost virtually all their productive assets, homes, and in some cases family members, and have little or no access to their farms.

Resettlement efforts have been hampered by lack of funds and ongoing tensions, rendering it improbable that households in either category are likely to achieve pre-election production levels in the near future.

USaid and WFP project that the likely scenario between July and September suggests that food insecurity will be felt in marginal agricultural areas, as little crop will be harvested, following the poor season. However, the new EMOP has been expanded to cover up to 30 per cent of the population in drought-hit areas, thus minimising the likelihood that food security will deteriorate to emergency status.

WFP says high food prices will also moderate local improvements in pastoral terms of trade. Poor urban households are likely to remain highly food insecure through next month because the most important harvest gets into the market from October onward; food prices will remain high unless large-scale food imports are undertaken.

The Government has unveiled a stimulus package to reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture and enhance food production.

Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta said the move would mark the beginning of a journey to attain food security.

The new measures would focus on mechanisation, irrigation, use of hybrid seeds and water harvesting.

Part of the plan is establishing efficient storage and marketing systems and application of scientific farming methods.

As a first step, the Government has allocated substantial resources to ministries responsible for agriculture, irrigation and regional development.

In addition, it allocated Sh3 billion toward rehabilitation and expansion of irrigable land under Bura, Hola, Tarda, Wei Wei and Kerio Valley.

Uhuru says from the investments, the Government expects to harvest about one million bags of rice and maize by the end of December this year.

"As we scale up resources toward irrigable agriculture, we are confident this great nation will emerge as a net exporter of food by 2012," he said.

Agriculture is the mainstay of the country’s economy and represents 24 per cent of Gross Domestic Product and about one third of its produce is exported.

But interestingly the budgetary allocation to Agriculture remains small compared to what is pumped in the military.

Agriculture production recorded a significant drop, declining by 5.1 per cent last year compared to a two per cent in 2007.

Analysts say unless intensive measures on irrigation are extended, there will be perennial food shortage.