By Morris Aron

Scandal-riddled projects and expensive stopgap measures to make up for shortfalls in supply characterise Kenya’s efforts to be self-sufficient in electricity production and use.

"Strategies on electricity production and use should not be crisis driven when oil prices are high, but should be long term plans that take into account every aspect of national energy supply and demand," says a report prepared by stakeholders to the Ministry of Energy, after the 2000 electricity crisis which resulted in mass power rationing.

Masinga Dam: Hydro-based power sources are prone to effects of unpredictable weather patterns leading to rationing. Photo: Martin Mukangu/Standard

Almost ten years down the line since the report was handed to the ministry, little has changed while continued clamour for cheaper electricity by the private sector has almost yielded nothing.

While policy makers and implementers appear to be deep in slumber only to be woken up in times of drought, experts say that it is about time that the country stopped the on a per basis response and implemented a plan that will see the country out of the energy mess that it is in now.

Prof Hiroyuki Hino, who serves as an advisor to Prime Minister Raila Odinga, reckons that the only way for Kenya out of the energy mess lies in embracing the green economy concept.

According to Prof Hino, such an approach would enable the country to save her environment from degradation and reduce the effects of climate change, while maintaining the water catchment areas essential for electricity production.

"The country will be able to produce more energy at reduced cost, and eventually be able to get into carbon trading. This will in turn boost the country's economy and the livelihood of Kenyans," Prof Hino said.

According to statistics, Kenya generates 1,248 megawatts of power, including 150 from temporary emergency sources, with a peak demand of 1,070 megawatts, leaving only a reserve margin of 14 per cent.

The small reserve gap has left Kenya vulnerable to any changes in weather patterns such as seasonal droughts—-which have meant that any cases of drought almost automatically result in rationing and increase power bills.

At about 1100 megawatts, the current supply cannot industrialise the country, while dependence on hydroelectricity has been stretched to the limit, and accounts for 60 per cent of the total supply.

The only way out of the quagmire for the country has been seasonal power supply increments that come through in the form of "emergency" petroleum thermal generation accounting for 35 percent of the total supply.

Prof Hino’s advice seems to have gone down well with policy makers.

In the 2009/2010 budget, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta set aside Sh500 million to establish a Green Energy Facility to generate clean energy and transform Kenya into a green economy.

The facility will offer interest-free long-term loans to firms that opt to replace conventional high-cost energy generation with low-cost green energy alternatives.

The future of hydroelectric power has been a topical issue lately, as water volumes in rivers which generate the water needed for continued supply of electricity dwindle at alarming rates, due to the destruction that is going on at the catchment areas such as the Mau, Aberdares and Mt Kenya regions.

The green approach therefore may go a long way in addressing the problem, while taking into account other energy needs such as biomass, firewood and charcoal as sources of alternate energy as all go hand in hand with the green energy concept.

Kenya's energy problems have been compounded by high international petroleum prices, delays in completion and commissioning of cheaper hydro-based sources to eliminate the use of emergency power producers which are more costly, but prove vital in times of shortfalls such as the one the country is currently going through.

Experts say that the country may need to re-model overall supply-demand energy balance on long term basis, and take into account the interest of energy users in all aspects of Kenya’s social and economic dimensions.

According to Prime Minister Raila Odinga, by June 2012, the country will have boosted its energy capacity by up to 2,000MW through geothermal, wind, bio-fuel, solid waste and coal-driven power plants.

Mr Odinga chairs a taskforce whose greatest task is establishing financing partnerships with the private investors.

One of the key highlights in the taskforce’s agenda is to look at ways of raving up the adoption of alternate energy sources such as geothermal power, wind and solar energy among others. The country recently operationalised the Geothermal Development Company to explore the best ways to develop the resource, which lies abundantly in the Rift Valley.

The Energy ministry has so far identified six geothermal projects in Olkaria and Menengai with a total capacity of 490MW. Historically, while the country's dependence on thermal power has been rising since 2007, recent sharp drop in crude prices handed it a short-term reprieve from the possible surge in bills.

The reprieve was, however, short-lived when the rains failed, pushing the country back to the same old tired path as concerned authorities rush in with myriad short-term solutions.

According to Mr Achim Steiner, the UN Under-Secretary-General and executive director of the Nairobi-based United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), one area that Kenya can explore is the option of wind and solar energy.

Kenya has the capacity to generate more than 3,000MW of electricity, if it tapped into wind energy in its vast northern districts.

Already, the Government had identified Turkana and Ngong where wind power generation projects with a capacity of 360MW will be set up.

The state has also set aside another Sh400 million for the installation of solar technologies in the arid and semi-arid regions. The UN says Kenya has adequate wind to generate energy for both export and domestic use.