The politics behind the President Kibaki succession took a more definite shape yesterday when he elevated Mr Uhuru Kenyatta to the plum Ministry of Finance.

The much-awaited mini reshuffle,that also saw Bureti MP Franklin Bett land the Roads portfolio, provided a peek into the unease in the dominant ODM, which late last year appeared headed for a split with Rift Valley MPs accusing Prime Minister Raila Odinga of short-changing them in the allocation of Cabinet and Civil Service appointments.

Political analysts were quick to discern the President and Prime Minister’s game plan. The appointment of Bett comes at time when Agriculture Minister William Ruto is fending off accusations of complicity in the Sh850 million maize scandal that could put paid to his ambitions for a higher office.

Beneficiary

"The art and science of real politics guided the appointments, which from information in the public domain, was done after consultations between the two principals. While Bett is strong and will certainly cushion the Prime Minister against brickbats hurled his way, it’s doubtful whether Uhuru will defuse the storm that has been brewing in PNU for a very long time," said Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale, who is also the chairman of the Parliamentary Accounts Committee.

However, there is no doubting that the biggest beneficiary in yesterday’s reshuffle, the first since the Grand Coalition Government was formed nearly a year ago, was Uhuru whose political courtship with the President has shunted other erstwhile Kibaki props in the Party of National Unity (PNU), key among them being Internal Security Minister George Saitoti, who is already lining up troops for the 2012 presidential race. Also appointed yesterday was Mrs Beatrice Kones as Assistant Minister for Home Affairs.

In the countdown to the 2007 General Election, Uhuru stepped down in favour of Kibaki, enabling the latter to sweep clean the Central Province vote.

"In terms of support, there is no single individual who has made many sacrifices for Kibaki more than Uhuru. It should not surprise anyone that Kibaki gave the mantle of minding the national coffers to Uhuru, who would have split the Central Province were he to defy the advice of his kinsmen and opposed Kibaki," Khalwale said of the new Finance minister, who is also MP for Gatundu South.

According to Khalwale, the changes announced by Kibaki yesterday come with serious political risks, especially for Uhuru.

"The strong message being sent out is that power is supposed to rotate within a certain clique. In the wider political context, what has happned is an indicator and confirmation that the old guard is determined to cling onto power, which is why Uhuru is being prepared to for 2012 presidential race. However, history has way of repeating itself," he added.

He was alluding to the arbitrary nomination of the Gatundu South MP in 2002 by former President Moi, which resulted in a major revolt in the then ruling party Kanu. It is the same line of thinking that was offered by former Kikuyu MP and senior counsel, Mr Paul Muite. While welcoming the appointments, Muite noted the timing and the execution had the Kibaki succession in mind.

Risks

"Unfortunately, it could herald the beginning of the end of PNU. It is clear that Kibaki has abandoned Saitoti in the same way Moi did in Kanu. The revolt that followed was too much for Moi to deal with," he said.

He warned that succession politics comes with heavy risks.

"Kibaki is a lame duck president because in his last term in office he lacks the clout to dictate the direction of politics without taking into account the desire of the Kenyan people," he said.

Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara sees politics-as-usual in the reshuffle. "It is pay back time. It is confirmation that Kibaki was never interested in reforms and what we are being treated to is a game of musical chairs," Imanyara said.

He added that the inclusion of Kimunya in the Cabinet would adversely impact on Uhuru’s political career, which he termed as being in a lull. Uhuru is chairman of Kanu, one of the PNU affiliates.

"The duplicity in Kibaki’s politics comes out clearly when you take into account that he had pledged to pass the baton to Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka," he said.

One of the PNU affiliates party, Narc-Kenya, chaired by Minister for Justice Martha Karua was the first to bolt out of PNU, which was initially a conglomeration 14 parties that came together to fend off the ODM onslaught in the countdown to the last General Election. Until Kibaki appointed Uhuru Deputy Prime Minister upon formation of the Grand Coalition Government, Karua was one of Kibaki’s fiercest defenders, leaving Uhuru, son of Kenya’s founding President Jomo Kenyatta, to play second fiddle.

Konoin MP Julius Kones says the elevation of Uhuru, who holds a degree in economics and political science from Umhurst University, US, to the Finance portfolio could trigger major realignments in PNU.

"For us in ODM, we are happy that Rift Valley got back its seats. However, we should brace for major shifts in PNU as the party adjusts to these changes. While I have no doubt he will perform, his choice was a clear message that Kibaki prefers him to Saitoti or Karua," he said.

The Roads ministry and Home Affairs Assistant Minister portfolios fell vacant following the death in a plane crash of former Bomet MP Kipkalya Kones and former Sotik MP Lorna Laboso.

Options

The Finance portfolio has been without a substantive minister for more than six months after Kimunya was forced resign following a vote of no confidence by Parliament. He was implicated in the controversial disposal of the Laico (formerly Grand Regency Hotel), without following due process.

While ODM was ready to fill its vacant slots after by-elections in Bomet and Sotik, PNU had fewer options. For instance, Environment Minister John Michuki, who until yesterday was acting Finance Minister, declined the offer to replace Kimunya arguing the Cockar Commission, which probed the sale of the Grand Regency, had not found him guilty.

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