By Peter Opiyo
Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the most preferred man in the race to State House should Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto be blocked from running for presidency.
According to the latest opinion poll released by Ipsos Synovate, RailaÂfs popularity would not be affected should the two not make it to the ballot. In the findings, with or without the two, RailaÂfs rating stands at 34 per cent.
The two are facing trials at the International Criminal Court over the 2008 post-election violence and there have been calls from some quarters that they be blocked from running until they are cleared. Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri, presents the opinion poll results, Nairobi, on Tuesday. [Photo: Mbugua Kibera/Standard]
Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri, presents the opinion poll results, Nairobi, on Tuesday. [Photo: Mbugua Kibera/Standard]
The biggest beneficiaries in the absence of the two would be Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who will garner 19 per cent of the votes, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, 10 per cent and Gichugu MP Martha Karua, nine per cent
But Raila would not have it easy in a run-off as the findings indicate it would be a neck and neck race between him and Uhuru with both posting 44 per cent popularity rating.
It could go either way in the run-off given that the margin of error in the survey is +/-2.2 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence level.
Tilt the win
There were 12 per cent undecided voters and Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Maggie Ireri said this could also tilt the results in either way.
And if the run-off would be between Raila and Mudavadi, the PM would score 43 per cent against MudavadiÂfs 41 per cent, in what the pollster says would be Âea razor thin leadÂf.
"Findings of this study indicate that a run-off between Raila and Uhuru would be hotly contested with each of the two receiving 44 per cent of the vote though the 12 per cent are undecided and this proportion of undecided voters would be enough to tilt the win either way," said Ms Ireri.