Kenya edging closer to becoming a failed State

By Kap Kirwok

The cold-blooded murder of Oscar Kamau King’ara and Paul Oulu of Oscar Foundation sends a shiver down the nation’s spine. As anger and fear rose over the murders last week, many were tempted to ask: Is Kenya in danger of becoming a failed state?

I refuse to believe that Kenya is anywhere near being considered failed. Am I in a state of denial? Is the country already on an inexorable match towards failure, given what appears to be a permanent state of dysfunction? Are we one disaster away from belly-up?

To help me settle these questions, I looked for answers from experts. The Fund for Peace is an independent US-based non-profit research and educational organisation. For four years now, the Fund for Peace in partnership with the bi-monthly magazine, Foreign Policy, has published the Failed States Index report.

Last year in Failed States Index, Kenya is ranked 26th, right next to the Democratic Republic of Congo and among States that have been colour-coded red – red for alert.

Do you agree with this ranking? What is its basis? I will describe the parameters they used. You decide for yourself.

The ranking is based on 12 social, economic and political indicators which serve as early warning signs of a failing State. Each country is assigned scores for each of the 12 indicators — the higher the score, the greater the risk of failure.

The first indicator is demographic pressure. This indicator measures the intensity of population pressures and the attendant competition for resources. It looks at the frequency of disputes and conflicts over land, water and other resources. How intense are such pressures in Kenya?

Also included in the demographic indicator is what the report calls a "youth bulge" — an unusually high proportion of young people in the population. Does Kenya have a ‘youth bulge" problem? Depending on how you define youth, the proportion can be as high as 70 per cent.

Displacement of people is the second indicator; it asks the question: Is there a massive displacement of people as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression? The displacement of people could also be due to frequent natural disasters, leading to chronic humanitarian crises that overwhelm the state.

Dangerous build-up tension

Another indicator of trouble is the existence of vengeance-seeking, aggrieved groups. It does not matter whether the grievance is due to historical or current injustices; the result is often a dangerous build-up of tension that manifests in cycles of violent protest and repression.

There is also the emergence of "hate" radio, among other means of spreading animosity against the ‘enemy’. Grievance, vengeance seeking and hate are dangerous indicators of potential strife.

Human flight is the fourth indicator. It refers to chronic and sustained emigration of professionals in particular and the middle class in general and is considered a dangerous sign of national decline, not least because of massive brain drain.

The fifth indicator is uneven economic development. This is one of the biggest sources of State stress and is usually worse when it manifests itself along ethnic or regional lines. It often gives rise to intense resentment of the ‘privileged’ groups based on real or perceived group inequalities.

Is this situation mirrored in the reality of Kenya today? Perhaps the most definitive answer to that question is found in a 2004 report by the Society for International Development, Pulling Apart: Facts and Figures on Inequality in Kenya. The disparities between different groups and regions are stark.

Sharp and/or severe economic decline is listed as the six indicator of potential State failure. It is characterised by extreme social hardship caused by a range of external and internal factors including corruption, smuggling, and capital flight. In extreme situations, the State fails to pay salaries of government employees or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens.

Another sign cited by the Failed States Index report is the criminalisation of the State as evidenced by endemic corruption, growth of crime syndicates, private militias, and widespread loss of popular confidence in State institutions.

Others are the progressive deterioration of public services, suspension or arbitrary application of the rule of law and widespread violation of human rights. There is also the emergence of security apparatus that operate as a "State Within a State" and the rise of factionalised elite. The final indicator is intervention or interference by foreign actors.

In all these indicators, Kenya’s score was 93.4 of 120. That is a likelihood of 78 per cent.

So: Is Kenya in danger of becoming a failed State? You decide.

—The writer ([email protected]) works for an international development agency in the US

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