By James Anyanzwa
The Coalition Government whose term ends on March 4, next year, is set to announce a subdued economic performance data for last year.
The verdict is almost in. Finance minister Robinson Githae while presenting Budget Policy Statement (BPS) in Parliament, gave the strongest indication that the economy is not yet out of the woods. Githae downgrade growth rate to 4.5 per cent for the current year, down from the projected 5.6 per cent.
This is the first time the Government will be reporting an annual slowdown in economic activities after the bloody post election violence stifled GDP growth to 1.7 per cent in 2008, up from 7.1 per cent in 2007.
But Githae was, however, quick to say the revised growth rate still represents resilience, considering that last year was characterised by delayed rains, high inflation, and weaker shilling, all of which combined to restrain growth.
Real gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in an economy during a given period, grew by 4.2 per cent in the first nine months of last year compared with 4.9 per cent in a similar period in 2010.
The growth was mainly attributed to continued expansion in building and construction, wholesale and retail, financial intermediation and agriculture and forestry as well as hotels and restaurants.
"Leading indicators for the fourth quarter of 2012 still point to continued growth, albeit at a slower rate," said Githae.
This worrying trend is attributed to a combination of both domestic and external factors, which hit various sectors of the economy last year.
The Economic Survey 2012 scheduled to be released by Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya next month is likely to capture slowed economic indicators.
Itâs obvious to all that the economy has been out of balance for a long time, but a number of external shocks exposes Kenyaâs unsustainable external position.