Okoa Kenya's secret plot to win 24 county assemblies in push for Referendum Bill

After the launch of its Referendum Bill, the Okoa-Kenya movement is working on a behind-the-scenes strategy to secure support of more than 24 county assemblies to meet the constitutional threshold for the plebiscite.

Okoa-Kenya’s Committee of Experts (CoE) chairman Paul Mwangi said they are not sitting pretty, since they understand the high stakes involved when the Bill is put before the 47 county assemblies for approval or disapproval.

The Constitution states that the draft Bill must be approved by at least 24 county assemblies before it can be introduced to Parliament.

The law further provides that a Bill seeking an amendment of the Constitution must be proposed by a popular initiative signed by at least a million registered voters, whose signatures have to be verified by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

“We are doing our own verification of the 1 million signatures before handing them over to IEBC. We are also receiving views on specific provisions in the Bill and we may do some refining where necessary,” said Mwangi.

Once submitted to the county assemblies, the draft Bill must be debated and passed within three months. Mwangi explained that county assemblies will not be making any amends to the Bill, the same case with the National Assembly. He said if Parliament passes the Bill, it goes to the President for assent but should Parliament or the President reject it, the proposed amendment will still be submitted to voters in a referendum.

The safety nets were drafted into the Supreme Law to ensure a popular referendum bid is not killed by the President or Parliament. Jubilee has a strong control over the National Assembly, with 216 MPs, only falling short by 16 to hit the 232 absolute majority that can enable it amend the Constitution in the House single handedly.

“Ours is a popular initiative which will move to the referendum stage even if Parliament does not approve it. The critical part is the counties but strategies are already in place to comfortably navigate around this hurdle,” Mwangi told The Standard on Sunday.

He said: “The strategies in place are our top secret but we are not taking any chances. People say the process is already politicised but you cannot divorce it from politics. The three CORD principals who are strong supporters of this initiatives are politicians in the first place.”

ODM leader Raila Odinga has consistently maintained CORD, which is behind Okoa Kenya movement, will carry the day, and that it was sure of winning not only in the 24 counties under its governors, but even in Jubilee counties because everyone wants devolution strengthened.

In a show of unity, Raila, Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford-Kenya) attended the launch at Bomas, where they were joined by Narc-Kenya party leader Martha Karua.

Kalonzo and Wetang'ula have in their public engagements equally declared Okoa Kenya’s referendum was unstoppable, with Kalonzo at one time cautioning Jubilee of a possible popular revolution if they scuttle the process.

Key changes

Okoa Kenya, in its Referendum Bill, officially called the Constitution of Kenya, 2010 (Amendment) Bill 2015, has proposed changes to provisions on security, land, devolution, electoral laws, and constitutional commissions and independent offices.

But the Jubilee coalition has resisted attempts to have IEBC overhauled. Jubilee leaders, led by President Uhuru Kenyatta, are also against referendum calls.

While CORD has 24 county governments under it, Jubilee has 23 counties but has often claimed to be in control of Kajiado County where it enjoys majority MCAs.

After the Bill launch, its expected that Jubilee will now put on a tough fight to kill the referendum at the county assemblies stage. Of interest will be how the two coalitions win MCAs, who have of late formalised their activities through the County Assemblies Forum (CAF), whose chair is Tana River County Assembly Speaker Abdi Nuh. A CAF technical team recently met all stakeholders in the referendum debate, but its final decision on where its membership stand on the referendum question is yet to be known.

Among those they met include the Mwangi-led CoE, CoG, Senate members, Constitutional Implementation Commission (CIC) and the political leadership of Jubilee and CORD.

Meanwhile, IEBC leadership has made proposals for changing sections of the electoral law to enhance clarity and address gaps identified in 2013 General Election and subsequent by-elections.

The commission presented a number of recommendations to the National Assembly’s Justice and Legal Affairs Committee (JLAC) and the National Gender and Equality Commission (NGEC) during a three-day workshop in Mombasa.

The amendments touch on educational requirements for candidates, dispute resolution mechanisms, electoral offences, electoral technology, voter registration, the referendum process and voting by Kenyan citizens residing outside the country among others.

The JLAC chairman, Ainamoi Constituency MP Samuel Chepkong’a, urged members to work within timeliness and ensure electoral reforms become a reality. IEBC is expected to lobby Parliament to make amendments to the electoral law while the Kenya Law Reform Commission (KLRC) will play a critical role in the drafting of the Bill.

Mwangi has maintained his team will not be distracted by sideshows that were not within its operational orbit and that it will remain focused on the issues identified to be part of the Referendum Bill.

Mwangi says its hard to divorce politics from the Okoa Kenya referendum, and failure at this stage will not be part of Okoa-Kenya’s wishes.

ODM Executive Director Oduor Ongwen said his party is ready to support the Okoa Kenya initiative, but those in charge of the referendum have to explore ways of making the initiative a success.

Wetangula confirmed their teams are strategising on steps to take to make the process a success all through. “We are sure of winning even in counties where we do not have governors because MCAs are on our side,” he said. He said the Bill would be subjected to public scrutiny and debate, before the CORD and OKoa Kenya team hits the ground running with campaign rallies.