Battle of titans in Homa Bay by-election threatens to dwarf the real candidates

It is big money and big stakes for big political players as the Homa Bay County senatorial by-election campaigns enter the homestretch.

While on paper the battle has narrowed down to two key contenders – Orange Democratic Movement (ODM)’s Moses Kajwang’ and Maendeleo Party of Kenya’s Phillip Okundi – in reality the contest has roped in other key political players.

That the stakes are high is evidenced by the great interest exhibited by the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leader, Raila Odinga, who personally escorted the Orange party candidate to present his nomination papers to the electoral body. The former Prime Minister had earlier endorsed Kajwang’s candidature during the funeral of his eldest son, Fidel.

Homa Bay is in Raila’s rural political home turf and few would have expected the Orange party leader to make spirited efforts to secure the senatorial seat. Ideally members of the ODM team and its umbrella coalition, CORD, ought to be camping in Kajiado Central, to defend their parliamentary seat in the forthcoming by-election, and not in Nyanza where Raila enjoys huge support.

But the interest of Nairobi County Governor Evans Kidero, has kept the Orange crowd on the alert. The ODM-allied governor, who has openly expressed his support for Okundi, has been holding meetings to strategise on the fall of his party’s candidate, Kajwang’.

Last Wednesday, for instance, The Standard on Sunday team witnessed the governor play host to a section of supporters at Nairobi’s Trattoria Restaurant. The governor walked in and headed to a reserved area upstairs for late lunch. He had just returned from an official event on Jogoo Road, where he had accompanied the President.

According to our source, the governor who mainly addressed his guests in Dholuo language, vowed to teach Raila a political lesson. He further promised to roll out a heavily monied campaign “that will shake Luo Nyanza region”.

Saying ODM was privy to the Kidero private meeting, the party’s Director of Elections, Junnet Muhammed, further claims the Nairobi Governor vowed to win “by hook or crook, including enlisting support of those who can help them steal the votes”.

“We are aware that Kidero hopes to humiliate Raila politically even if it means winning the Homa Bay poll fraudulently. If that happens, whether we get justice later on in the courts, he would have registered his sting,” claims Junnet.

Efforts to get Kidero’s reaction on his alleged utterances during his private lunch meeting were fruitless as his cell phone was off most of the day.

The governor threw his weight behind Okundi last Tuesday, citing handpicking of ODM flag bearer Kajwang’, whom he termed unpopular among the Homa Bay residents.

Nomination mess

“The problem with those entrusted with the ODM party leadership is that they hardly learn from past mistakes. The nominations debacle has cost us numerous seats in the past and it is high time we dealt with the issue once and for all,” Kidero said.

Efforts to reach Raila for comment were unsuccessful as his spokesman, Dennis Onyango (no relationship with the author of this story) advised the former PM was reluctant to discuss such minor issues. Raila instead directed us to talk to other party stalwarts.

Nonetheless, Onyango offered that the struggle was not about how Moses was picked. According to the former PM’s aide, it all began with the late Otieno Kajwang’, whom he says survived numerous attempts to be replaced.

“On the day we launched Okoa Kenya at Ufungamano, the late Kajwang’ shared a story of how the monied elite in Luo land were ganging up against him. He mentioned names and all those he mentioned showed up in this by-election and opposed Moses,” claims Onyango.
The aide also explains that all those who sought the Homa Bay ticket, except Caroli Omondi, wanted Raila to give them direct nomination.

“I was with Okundi and Rabongo in Raila’s house a day before they abandoned ODM. They came separately but each wanted direct nomination. Raila told them over breakfast that young people were on his neck crying to be given a chance. Raila said that since Homa Bay election was the first after the new-look ODM leadership was unveiled, it would be good to get a young candidate to work with the new team. The next thing we heard was that Okundi and the rest had defected. I challenge Okundi and Fred Rabongo to deny that they sought Raila’s endorsement and direct ticket,” states Onyango. Either way, the fact that Raila and Kidero have taken opposing sides in the Homa Bay race, makes for an appetising political battle. Indeed the stakes are very high for both political leaders.

For Raila, who is out to affirm his political hold on the region, this is a battle he must win to re-assert his status. A loss would mark the beginning of massive challenges in his political career including denting his presidential bid.

Testing the waters

On his part, Kidero is testing the political waters and he has no choice but get it right. If he succeeds, he may eclipse the CORD leader as the tide of political fortunes in Nyanza would change in his favour – thanks to a host of youthful MPs eager for alternative leadership. But if he flops, his short-lived political career may come down crumbling faster than it went up.

Similarly, the outcome of the polls will have far reaching implications for Okundi and the Homa Bay Governor, Cyprian Awiti. Having lost to Awiti in the gubernatorial race, this could be Okundi’s last chance to reinvent himself politically. Two consecutive losses will surely dent his career, and this is precisely why Awiti may be keen on vanquishing Okundi at the ballot. A loss for Okundi will most certainly assure Awiti of a smooth sailing in the 2017 General Election.

All in all, it all comes to a Raila versus Kidero battle, a fact that is a bit discomforting to Raila’s key backers like Junnet: “Kidero is a small man to match Raila politically and economically. While Kidero is working on a vision 2030 strategy, Raila is on a 2017 vision. So we are completely on two different lanes.”