Kalenjin MPs to convince Deputy President Ruto to run for Presidency in 2017

A number of MPs want to convince Deputy President William Ruto to run for the Presidency in 2017. The route they envisage is for Ruto to demand that President Uhuru Kenyatta drops his bid for a second term and back his number two... as a sign of good faith.

Never mind the United Republican Party (URP) MPs-who want Ruto to run- are still basking in their ‘tyranny of numbers’ in the governing Jubilee coalition, while smarting from a less influential position in the alliance.

This call comes in the wake of reports that URP has ceded ground in their push to have The National Alliance (TNA) honour a pre-election agreement that provided for public sector appointments on a 50:50 basis between the president’s and his deputy’s parties.

Since TNA enjoys an overwhelming majority in parliament and the senate, the president’s party has not shied from flexing the muscles of its numerical might to have its way.

The current misgivings arise from suspicions that TNA is slipping into Kibaki-style administration, during which decisions were allegedly made by the president’s inner circle.

Apparently, MPs allied to Ruto are unhappy that their concerns are not being addressed. This reportedly is what forced the MPs to call a meeting at a restaurant in Hurlingham in July, where a resolution was made to demand that TNA support Ruto for presidency in 2017.

During the meeting, it reportedly emerged that URP MPs from Rift Valley were suspicious of their TNA counterparts, whom they were not sure would be willing to back Ruto should President Uhuru rule for 10 years.

“I was not invited to the July 4 meeting. But this is an issue we have been discussing. Uhuru should support Ruto because we are not sure TNA would support Ruto in 2022. We want TNA to show commitment. What we have now is just a promise to support a URP candidate after 10 years, but this might not be honoured. If they support Ruto in 2017, we’ll return the favour and support TNA in 2022,” Elijah Lagat, MP for Engwen, told The Nairobian.

Similar sentiments, laced with doubts about TNA’s commitment, have in the recent past been expressed by Kuresoi MP Zakayo Cheruiyot and Nandi Hills MP Alfred Keter, among others. A number of MPs who attended the meeting declined to go on record about their discussions.

The latest development in the relations between URP and TNA points to the beginning of fresh political realignments, which according to political analyst Prof Larry Gumbe, will also affect how the opposition conducts its affairs. “There have been contradictions and disquiet in both coalitions. But after the opposition reclaimed its place in national politics, Jubilee is having a difficult time, having been caught off guard in their complacent belief that Cord was vanquished.”

He says the apparent tranquility in Jubilee is buttressed by uncertainty, as politicians weigh their options before making their move, come the next wave of migrations.

The meeting by Rift Valley MPs, mainly from Uasin Gishu, was not the first at the same venue. They have apparently been meeting regularly to discuss how their party has been relegated to play second fiddle in the coalition and express their concerns that Ruto might be further consigned to irrelevance should TNA continue deploying their numerical might in both houses.

According to Lagat, the regular meetings have also been reviewing how the government is handling matters related to dairy, maize and tea farming, which are the economic mainstay of farmers in URP-dominated regions.

“The president is yet to heed our calls for improvement in these sub-sectors,” Lagat says.

Aware of the restlessness, both Jubilee and Cord have hit the road again, seeking to break new ground and market their policies and potential candidates in a new rush for political support.

Although he initially let his deputy do the running around to gauge support on the ground and manage the coalition’s political spin, Uhuru has recently been playing an active role in these forays, especially in what may be perceived as hostile regions.

He has already toured North Rift twice, Western and Coast, all in a span of one week.

The internal shifts in Jubilee and Cord, says Gumbe, will in the long run affect how the next presidential election will be decided.

Lagat says that unless TNA agrees to support URP for presidency in 2017, the party would have no option but to forge new alliances.

During the six months when Cord leader Raila Odinga was on a sabbatical in the United States, Jubilee was rocked by internal wrangling and his return that infused the opposition with new energy has drawn battle lines pitting the government against the opposition.

The inherent contradictions on either side of the political divide, which at the beginning of the year created many dissenting voices in Jubilee with allegations of tribalism, corruption and favouritism threatening to break up URP and TNA coalition; also pushed Cord to the brink after the botched party elections.

In the ensuing confusion, Jubilee initially looked poised to benefit from the inter-party tensions and fallout following Raila’s return. Jubilee even managed to unite a coalition that some thought was teetering on a precipice, after URP MPs accused TNA of arrogance, skewed employment and tender awards and sacking of civil servants perceived to be from URP strongholds.

Gumbe, a former chairman of the Centre for Multiparty Democracy (CMD) says: “It is true that Cord has helped unite Jubilee after a rather difficult period. What we are seeing is a preamble to future political realignments. The relative calm in Jubilee is temporary. The restive MPs who had become a problem, especially from URP, are studying the situation and it won’t be long before they start scouting for a new home.”

Mombasa Senator Omar Hassan Omar says the cracks in Jubilee begun to manifest because the National Assembly is riding on a “false” belief in ‘tyranny of numbers’, that for all intents and purposes, has become an appendage of the executive. “The opposition appeared broken because it had not consolidated its constituency, with some opposition strongholds seeming to be supportive of the government. But the galvanization of the opposition’s constituency is now having a significant impact on national politics,” says Hassan.

The senator, who belongs to Cord, says the increased number of alleged corrupt deals in government and the opposition’s reawakened zeal to fight the ills in government has put Jubilee in a defensive position, which has rallied the coalition’s members together, despite the grumbles.

URP MPs Keter, Cheruiyot and Lagat, together with Bomet county governor Isaac Ruto, are some of the most vocal politicians who have questioned DP Ruto’s continued support for Uhuru.

But their voices have suddenly gone quiet and there seem to be a semblance of unity in Jubilee.

Prof Gumbe says Cord deliberately allowed Jubilee time to make mistakes, which Raila and company then took advantage of to reclaim their position and relevance in national politics.

“Raila is a calculating strategist. He gave Uhuru time to make mistakes. He has come back to reclaim his space. He is trying to portray Jubilee as clueless and hence prone to making gaffes and costly mistakes. The yet-to-take-off Standard Gauge Railway project and unpopular decision to make Anglo-Leasing payments are but some of the things that have given Cord ammunition to attack Jubilee, who now have to rethink their belief that the opposition and Raila are a spent force. Jubilee now has to re-strategise on how to retain power,” says the Prof.