Someone poking Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto soft-belly

By Kipkoech Tanui

Kenya: The March 4 election spell is yet to leave us and it manifests itself more in the social Internet sites.

I am sure you too can feel its undercurrent sweeping through the body of Kenya’s politics. The frustration as of now is to get our finger on the right vein to gauge its pulse and throb.

Not that the tidal wave staved off by Mr Raila Odinga and his team by way of demands for a referendum, through collection of a million signatures to force a referendum on the Constitution, is of immediate threat to President Uhuru’s and deputy William Ruto’s rule.

I believe the cases starting next month for Ruto, and in November for Uhuru, could be more distracting for the two leaders than this referendum debate.

But you would soon understand why they are also not taking this other matter lightly.

Political Discourse

However, even if only for political discourse or banter, we may need to give this renewed rivalry fresh look because the political battle line follows the pattern of the ethnic constellation that built up into the March 4 implosion.

On the one hand you have the Jubilee brigade, fortified by nascent incumbency and cushioned by veneer of being the Executive.

On the other, we have CORD, with the ‘captain’ remaining Mr Raila Odinga, deputised by Mr Kalonzo Musyoka.

There are certain things we had predicted before, and they are all coming to fruition. We said by virtue of their triumph, Uhuru and Ruto would soon enough realise how difficult it is to fulfil their big promises against our rising levels of consumption of public funds because of increased expenditure from the new institutions and commissions created by the Constitution, and of course legendary greed.

Worse still for the pair, the previous regime handed them a huge public debt, mainly from the Chinese and the roads we glorify Mr Mwai Kibaki for, and the onerous burden of implementing the Constitution in full.

It was therefore natural that after election, as reality strikes, the issues of unimplemented pay deal with teachers dating back to 1997 would come in. Doctors and nurses too would follow as civil servants. Note that there is nothing more binding among the working class, far beyond political affiliation, tribe and grade in the employment ladder, than the issues of the stomach.

That is where we are today; with Uhuru and Ruto beset with intricacy of balancing the interests of, or even appeasing the public workforce, while confronting the number one monster Kibaki might never have quite told them he left without slaying.

This monster is called PublicWageBill, and its surname is Runaway, because it is crushing and gulps down Sh485 billion of the Sh700 billion average revenue the national tax collector rakes.

It is like running a business where for every Sh700 you make, you are only left with Sh215 to invest in fresh stock, pay salaries and keep yourself and family in comfort — after paying off the recurrent or fixed costs!

The nature of politics is that we are all swept off our feet when a regime we support takes over.

But because of high expectations, so too are higher the frustrations when it seems it can’t deliver your expectations within your reasonable or unreasonable timings.

Tribal ties

The referendum calls, just like the teachers’ strike, will test the metal with which Uhuru and Ruto are made. Yes, the tyranny of numbers can hold sway in an election, but when the stomach rumbles with hunger-pangs, the tribal ties loosen.

The other prediction was that Raila might not be retiring soon, largely because of the ‘unfinished’ business with Uhuru and Ruto, but also due to the fact that in moments of crises like these, he thrives.

So predictably, he was bidding his time, and along with his team, he has seen the side o Jubilee soft-belly he can start poking by the tip of a knife, held for him by the Governors, Senators, and the common folk fascinated by the idea of devolution.

You see in these three groups you can be sure issues of tribe and political affiliation may not be that binding when you factor in how their own personal interests are threatened by the puncturing of the tyre of devolution.

So in a nutshell you expect that there are Members of County As-sembly, Governors and Senators who will support Raila’s push despite being in Jubilee. This is because a different MOI still rules Kenya, and the abbreviation means: My Own Interest!

Throw into this mix the icing on the political cake we are being asked to taste; the members of the smaller Kenyan tribes, who on the basis of the so-called tyranny of numbers, know that elections is just but a census of Kenyan communities, with the constellation of the bigger tribes for mutual reasons assured a win.

Then the last prediction we made was that as a country we shall soon have another object of hate, to take over from Raila, and that person must be within the proximity of the next presidency, and must be so serious a threat to Uhuru’s second term, his horns would have to be trimmed soon.

This is hypothetical, but if you listen to the grapevine, you may hear the squawk in Jubilee kraal; “what shall we do with him?”

Now the point we are making is; however crude the timing is, the next succession battle has started.

This is typical of we Kenyans really, but the question we should be asking is if we are ready for the next divisive referendum under the same IEBC cast, and with TON (tyranny of numbers) intact? What about the cost? I would have told you about the other issue probably at play but it is too hot…and has to do with what will soon happen at The Hague.

The writer is the Managing Editor The Counties Weekly.