The projection from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows a far-reaching shift in the balance of graduate numbers, with the rising Asian economies accelerating ahead of the United States and western Europe.
The biggest faller is going to be the United States - down to 11% - and for the first time pushed into third place, behind India.
The US and the countries of the European Union combined are expected to account for little more than a quarter of young graduates.
Russia is also set to decline - its share of the world's graduates almost falling by half since the beginning of the century.
Indonesia, according to the OECD's projections, will rise into fifth place.
Degrees of change
Is this an end-of-empire moment?
Higher education has become the mirror and magnifier of economic performance - and in the post-World-War-II era, universities in the US, western Europe, Japan and Russia have dominated.
The US in particular has been the university superpower - in wealth, influence and until recently in raw numbers.
Parents in China rent apartments near schools as university exams approach Chinese parents rent apartments near schools to cut travelling time during university entrance exams