“If G7 decide to back one leader, then they can secure the presidency in the first round but if all are on the ballot, then chances are slim,” said Oloo.
He further points out what a candidate needs to take note of is how to secure the popular vote and win at least 24 counties.
Rift Valley province has the highest number of counties and this partly explains why most presidential aspirants have been gravitating around the province.
Campaigns have equally been intense in regions such as Western Province, Central Kenya, Coast and South-Nyanza (Kisii region).
Originally, G7 had two options, one being to support a single candidate and win the presidency in round one or two, to run separately and force a run-off, before backing whoever would have entered the run-off bracket from the group.
Chances of unity seem to be reducing since each of the four main members of the alliance (Uhuru, Kalonzo, Ruto and Wamalwa) are all planning to contest on their own party tickets.
It is also clear Raila now wants his rivals — Uhuru and Ruto — on the ballot despite their charges at the ICC and he has stated publicly that no one should be denied a chance to run.
Apart from G7, another alliance was between Uhuru, Kalonzo and the late Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.
Prof Saitoti died two weeks ago just when he was about to discuss modalities on how to elect one presidential candidate within the Alliance Party of Kenya with Uhuru and Kalonzo, according to, PNU National Organising Secretary Maina Kamanda.
There are reports Uhuru, Kalonzo and Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi are involved in another new alliance, meant to consolidate votes around Mt Kenya region.
A few months back, Parliament upheld pre-election coalitions after amending legislation to regulate political parties.
Then, rejection of the attempt to outlaw pre-election coalitions was seen as a triumph in Parliament by the so-called G7 alliance over Raila’s ODM.
The amendment by former Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo (now in Education docket), which was moved by Kiraitu, sanctioned both pre and post-election coalitions. The amended provision reads: “Two or more political parties may form a coalition before or after an election and shall deposit the coalition agreement with the registrar.”
