By Athman Amran
Events of the past couple of months raise more questions than answers as to the alternatives Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has in his quest for the presidency in the General Election.
For example, has the falling out between Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi and Prime Minister Raila Odinga made the key members of the G7 Alliance, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, change their plan on a possible compromise candidate – perceived to have been the VP – if the International Criminal Court locks them out of the presidential race?
And was the luncheon between Kalonzo and Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa a sign that the two have realised that with Mudavadi in the picture they are no longer of any political significance to Uhuru and Ruto, who command a huge following in Central and the Rift Valley?
And is President Kibaki also seeing Mudavadi as an alternative presidential candidate if Uhuru and Ruto are out of the picture?
This perception is enhanced by the move by the President to choose Mudavadi to take the VP’s place to welcome him to address the nation during Madaraka Day celebrations at the Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi, on June 1.
Kalonzo and Raila were out of the country during the Madaraka Day celebrations. Last Thursday, the President also sent Mudavadi to represent him during the celebration of the Fifth World Accreditation Day at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre.
Political analyst and lecturer at the University of Nairobi, Adams Oloo says the entry of the Sabatia MP changes the equation in the G7 Alliance.
“The entry of Mudavadi means that the sidelining of Kalonzo is complete,” Dr Oloo says, adding that by leaving ODM, it means the DPM can now be a compromise candidate if Uhuru and Ruto are locked out of the presidential race by their trial in The Hague. He said Kalonzo must have realised that he is no longer “number one” in the G7 Alliance.
“Wamalwa was also made to believe he was the G7 pointman in Western. But with the entry of Mudavadi, he is now supposed to take a back seat,” Oloo adds.
He said one of the options for Kalonzo and Eugene is to form a force that would work with them.
But he feels the two cannot stick together because the Justice minister may soon realise that by working with the VP, he would be fighting Mudavadi, Sirisia MP and Ford-Kenya leader Moses Wetangula and ODM, which means he would be suffocated of support in Western and Nyanza.
“I see Wamalwa working with Ford-Kenya or ODM. He has to go where the Luhya support,” he said.