In percentage terms, almost 65 per cent of those who turned out to vote in the Rift Valley actually voted for Raila Odinga.
From his native Nyanza, Raila received only about 1.28 million votes, almost 300,000 less than what he got from the Rift Valley. The third largest vote basket for Raila came from Western, an area predominantly occupied by the Luhya community.
Of those who turned out to vote in Western Province, more than 639,000 or about 66 per cent of the voters in that province, voted for Raila, compared to only 312,000 who voted for Kibaki.
Out of the eight provinces, Raila beat Kibaki in four, i.e. Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley and Coast in which he got 82, 66, 65 and 59 per cent of the vote respectively.
Kibaki defeated him in Nairobi, Central, Eastern and North Eastern provinces in which he got 48, 97, 50.4 and 50.3 per cent of the vote respectively. Kalonzo, who hails from Eastern Province, did not even win the vote in his home province, which voted 50.4 per cent for Kibaki against his total of 44 per cent.
In short, Kibaki fared best in his native Central, followed by Eastern and Nairobi, while Raila came out best in Rift Valley, followed by Nyanza and Western Provinces.
What conclusions can one draw from these results of the 2007 presidential elections? Here are just three of them.
First, if Raila were to lose the support of the majority of the voters from the Rift Valley and Western provinces, his presidential bid at the next general elections would be virtually untenable.
Put another way, if Raila lost the support of the Luhya and Kalenjin communities, there is virtually no way he could be elected president at the next general elections.
Dead in the water
Second, the real battleground regions in 2007 with regard to the presidency were Rift Valley, Central, Nyanza, Eastern and Western.
Whoever could garner the majority support in these five, would almost certainly win the presidency.
